Flyweight
3 Rounds
Nate Maness won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 7, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupNate Maness: Well-roundedvsMateus Mendonca: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Nate Maness wins(75.6%)
Actual result: Nate Maness wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Maness has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Nate Maness has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Nate Maness
Red Corner
VS
Mateus Mendonca
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
34
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'6"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate Maness
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Luke Sanders · Nov 20W
KOvs Tony Gravely · Sep 21L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jun 22L
SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 22W
vs Jimmy Flick · Jun 24Mateus MendoncaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Javid Basharat · Jan 23L
vs Jesus Aguilar · Feb 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate ManessMetricMateus Mendonca
3.14
Strikes / min
1.66
3.88
Strikes absorbed / min
4.14
42%
Strike defense
30%
0.68
TDs / 15 min
2.54
80%
Takedown defense
55%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.74Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-2.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nate ManessMateus Mendonca
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Maness(7 fights)Mateus Mendonca(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+27.9-27.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+70.0-70.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Nate Maness
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7
Mateus Mendonca
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3