Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Marquardt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Cezar Ferreira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).
- Cezar Ferreira has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate MarquardtL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 15L
KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16W
KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16L
vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17 Cezar FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 16L
vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17W
SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18L
vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18L
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate MarquardtMetricCezar Ferreira
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Nate MarquardtCezar Ferreira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Marquardt(10 fights)Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -11.6|Blue +11.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -104.0|Blue +104.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Nate MarquardtTargetCezar Ferreira
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Cezar Ferreira edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Nate Marquardt edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:26
Knockdowns1
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Cezar Ferreira edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:15
13Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:26Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
