Middleweight
3 Rounds
Sam Alvey won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 28, 2017·Denver, Colorado, USA, USA
Style matchupNate Marquardt: Well-roundedvsSam Alvey: Striker
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(53.0%)
Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Nate Marquardt
Red Corner
VS
Sam Alvey
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
47
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate MarquardtL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 15L
KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16W
KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16L
vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ryan Spann · May 20L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate MarquardtMetricSam Alvey
2.71
Strikes / min
3.28
2.32
Strikes absorbed / min
3.63
55%
Strike defense
52%
1.87
TDs / 15 min
0.06
70%
Takedown defense
82%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nate MarquardtSam Alvey
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Marquardt(10 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-56.456.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Nate Marquardt
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14
Sam Alvey
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23