Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Caolan Loughran has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nathan Fletcher
oldest →W
SUBvs Zygimantas Ramaska · Sep 24L
KOvs Rinya Nakamura · Aug 25 Caolan Loughran
oldest →L
vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 23W
vs Angel Pacheco · Mar 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nathan FletcherMetricCaolan Loughran
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.25Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.47
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Nathan FletcherCaolan Loughran
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nathan Fletcher(3 fights)Caolan Loughran(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -23.1|Blue +23.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Nathan FletcherTargetCaolan Loughran
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Caolan Loughran edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:20
12Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:06Control
Round 2Nathan Fletcher edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control3:31
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:43Control
Round 3Caolan Loughran edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:23
15Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:09Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
