Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Navajo Stirling won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 10, 2025·Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: Navajo Stirling wins(58.6%)
Actual result: Navajo Stirling wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Navajo Stirling enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Navajo Stirling has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Navajo Stirling has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Navajo Stirling
Red Corner
VS
Ivan Erslan
Blue Corner
-330
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+265
(27%)
28
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'2"
200.66 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Navajo StirlingW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tuco Tokkos · Dec 24W
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Sep 25W
KOvs Bruno Lopes · Mar 26Ivan ErslanL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ion Cutelaba · Sep 24L
SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Navajo StirlingMetricIvan Erslan
6.25
Strikes / min
2.55
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
5.01
58%
Strike defense
53%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
0.45
82%
Takedown defense
61%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.58Δ 6.04 — meaningful gap-2.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Navajo StirlingIvan Erslan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Navajo Stirling(4 fights)Ivan Erslan(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+32.7-32.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-77.077.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+2.0-2.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Navajo Stirling
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights4
Ivan Erslan
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3