Welterweight
3 Rounds
Lorenz Larkin won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 20, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsLorenz Larkin: Elusive striker
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(76.9%)
Actual result: Lorenz Larkin wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lorenz Larkin has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Lorenz Larkin has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Neil Magny has a 20cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Neil Magny
Red Corner
VS
Lorenz Larkin
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
38
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
5'11"
203.2 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Neil Magny
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24W
KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25W
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25Lorenz Larkin
oldest →latest
L
vs Derek Brunson · Aug 14W
KOvs John Howard · Jan 15W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15L
vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16W
vs Jorge Masvidal · May 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Neil MagnyMetricLorenz Larkin
3.40
Strikes / min
3.53
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
2.74
51%
Strike defense
63%
2.17
TDs / 15 min
0.27
55%
Takedown defense
79%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Neil MagnyLorenz Larkin
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Neil Magny(10 fights)Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+124.6-124.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+71.0-71.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Neil Magny
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights37
Lorenz Larkin
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights10