Flyweight
3 Rounds
Louis Smolka won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 11, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(54.4%)
Actual result: Louis Smolka wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Neil Seery has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Louis Smolka has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Neil Seery
Red Corner
VS
Louis Smolka
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
46
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'9"
162.56 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Neil SeeryL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Phil Harris · Jul 14W
vs Chris Beal · Jan 15W
SUBvs Jon Delos Reyes · Oct 15L
vs Kyoji Horiguchi · May 16L
SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jul 17Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Neil SeeryMetricLouis Smolka
3.56
Strikes / min
4.67
3.79
Strikes absorbed / min
4.11
58%
Strike defense
53%
0.78
TDs / 15 min
1.69
53%
Takedown defense
32%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Neil SeeryLouis Smolka
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Neil Seery(7 fights)Louis Smolka(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.10.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-78.078.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.21.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Neil Seery
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights7
Louis Smolka
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17