Welterweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Carlos Condit won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, February 4, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupNick Diaz: Submission grapplervsCarlos Condit: Elusive striker
The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.
Model Prediction: Nick Diaz wins(70.3%)
Actual result: Carlos Condit wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nick Diaz has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nick Diaz (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Nick Diaz
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Condit
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
42
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nick DiazL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs BJ Penn · Oct 11L
vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 13L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Sep 21Carlos Condit
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18W
vs Court McGee · Oct 20W
vs Matt Brown · Jan 21L
vs Max Griffin · Jul 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nick DiazMetricCarlos Condit
5.71
Strikes / min
3.66
3.84
Strikes absorbed / min
2.67
59%
Strike defense
55%
1.28
TDs / 15 min
0.59
60%
Takedown defense
38%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.87evenly matched on net striking+0.99
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nick DiazCarlos Condit
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nick Diaz(4 fights)Carlos Condit(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-35.935.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-119.0119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Nick Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4
Carlos Condit
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17