Middleweight
3 Rounds
Robbie Lawler won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 25, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupNick Diaz: Submission grapplervsRobbie Lawler: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Robbie Lawler wins(50.2%)
Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Nick Diaz
Red Corner
VS
Robbie Lawler
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-160
(62%)
42
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nick DiazL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs BJ Penn · Oct 11L
vs Carlos Condit · Feb 12L
vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 13Robbie Lawler
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Ben Askren · Mar 19L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nick DiazMetricRobbie Lawler
5.71
Strikes / min
3.85
3.84
Strikes absorbed / min
4.67
59%
Strike defense
59%
1.28
TDs / 15 min
0.65
60%
Takedown defense
65%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.87Δ 2.69 — meaningful gap-0.82
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nick DiazRobbie Lawler
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nick Diaz(4 fights)Robbie Lawler(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-75.475.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+2723.0-2723.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Nick Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4
Robbie Lawler
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18