Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rick Story won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 10, 2010·Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupNick Osipczak: Submission grapplervsRick Story: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Nick Osipczak wins(65.0%)
Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rick Story has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).
- Nick Osipczak has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Nick Osipczak
Red Corner
VS
Rick Story
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-165
(62%)
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
5'9"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nick OsipczakL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Greg Soto · Aug 10L
vs Duane Ludwig · Nov 10Rick Story
oldest →latest
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14W
SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14W
vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nick OsipczakMetricRick Story
2.83
Strikes / min
3.80
3.77
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
50%
Strike defense
62%
1.20
TDs / 15 min
2.53
71%
Takedown defense
63%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.94Δ 2.57 — meaningful gap+1.63
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nick OsipczakRick Story
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nick Osipczak(3 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Nick Osipczak
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3
Rick Story
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights16