Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jesse Ronson won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 25, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupNicolas Dalby: Well-roundedvsJesse Ronson: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Nicolas Dalby wins(59.8%)
Actual result: Jesse Ronson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jesse Ronson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jesse Ronson (53.5%).
- Nicolas Dalby has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Nicolas Dalby
Red Corner
VS
Jesse Ronson
Blue Corner
-265
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
41
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nicolas Dalby
oldest →latest
W
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23W
KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23L
vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24L
KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25W
vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25Jesse RonsonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Michel Prazeres · Sep 13L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 14L
vs Kevin Lee · Jul 14L
SUBvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 22L
KOvs Joaquim Silva · Oct 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nicolas DalbyMetricJesse Ronson
3.88
Strikes / min
3.54
3.51
Strikes absorbed / min
3.39
52%
Strike defense
57%
0.90
TDs / 15 min
0.46
59%
Takedown defense
57%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nicolas DalbyJesse Ronson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)Jesse Ronson(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+58.2-58.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-1910.01910.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.9-1.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Nicolas Dalby
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14
Jesse Ronson
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6