Lightweight
3 Rounds
Nik Lentz won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 19, 2015·Orlando, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupNik Lentz: WrestlervsDanny Castillo: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(64.2%)
Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Danny Castillo has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Nik Lentz
Red Corner
VS
Danny Castillo
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
41
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
172.72 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nik LentzL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18W
vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19L
KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19L
vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20L
vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21Danny CastilloL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 13W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14L
vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15L
vs Jim Miller · Jul 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nik LentzMetricDanny Castillo
3.44
Strikes / min
2.57
3.25
Strikes absorbed / min
1.96
50%
Strike defense
62%
3.30
TDs / 15 min
2.95
43%
Takedown defense
63%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.19evenly matched on net striking+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nik LentzDanny Castillo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nik Lentz(10 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+38.4-38.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Nik Lentz
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights22
Danny Castillo
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights14