Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Nikita Krylov won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 23, 2022·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Nikita Krylov wins(64.1%)
Actual result: Nikita Krylov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Nikita Krylov threatens submissions; Alexander Gustafsson has lost 38% of fights by sub.
- Alexander Gustafsson has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Nikita Krylov
Red Corner
VS
Alexander Gustafsson
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
34
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'5"
195.58 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nikita Krylov
oldest →latest
W
vs Volkan Oezdemir · Oct 22W
SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25W
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26Alexander GustafssonL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Sep 16W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17L
KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18L
SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nikita KrylovMetricAlexander Gustafsson
4.36
Strikes / min
4.03
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
3.53
47%
Strike defense
51%
2.05
TDs / 15 min
1.53
53%
Takedown defense
83%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.77Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+0.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nikita KrylovAlexander Gustafsson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-15.315.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-602.0602.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Nikita Krylov
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21
Alexander Gustafsson
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights17