Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Nikita Krylov won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 24, 2026·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsModestas Bukauskas: Striker
Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Nikita Krylov wins(64.1%)
Actual result: Nikita Krylov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Modestas Bukauskas enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Modestas Bukauskas has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Nikita Krylov
Red Corner
VS
Modestas Bukauskas
Blue Corner
+112
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-132
(57%)
34
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'3"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nikita KrylovL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 22W
vs Volkan Oezdemir · Oct 22W
SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25Modestas BukauskasW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Vitor Petrino · Nov 23W
SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 24W
KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25W
vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25W
KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nikita KrylovMetricModestas Bukauskas
4.36
Strikes / min
3.24
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
4.05
47%
Strike defense
50%
2.05
TDs / 15 min
0.26
53%
Takedown defense
79%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.77Δ 2.58 — meaningful gap-0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nikita KrylovModestas Bukauskas
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-13.813.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+42.0-42.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.61.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Nikita Krylov
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21
Modestas Bukauskas
StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12