Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Paul Craig won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 19, 2022·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Nikita Krylov wins(67.1%)
Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Paul Craig threatens submissions; Nikita Krylov has lost 44% of fights by sub.
- Nikita Krylov has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Nikita Krylov
Red Corner
VS
Paul Craig
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
34
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nikita Krylov
oldest →latest
W
vs Volkan Oezdemir · Oct 22W
SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25W
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nikita KrylovMetricPaul Craig
4.36
Strikes / min
2.50
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
3.04
47%
Strike defense
43%
2.05
TDs / 15 min
1.43
53%
Takedown defense
35%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.77Δ 2.31 — meaningful gap-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nikita KrylovPaul Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-15.915.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+105.0-105.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Nikita Krylov
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20