Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Nikita Krylov won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 11, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsRyan Spann: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Nikita Krylov wins(71.6%)
Actual result: Nikita Krylov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nikita Krylov threatens submissions; Ryan Spann has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Ryan Spann threatens submissions; Nikita Krylov has lost 44% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
Nikita Krylov
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Spann
Blue Corner
-168
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+142
(41%)
34
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'5"
195.58 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nikita Krylov
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 22W
vs Volkan Oezdemir · Oct 22L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25W
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26Ryan Spann
oldest →latest
L
vs Anthony Smith · Aug 23L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24W
SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25W
SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nikita KrylovMetricRyan Spann
4.36
Strikes / min
3.11
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
3.92
47%
Strike defense
43%
2.05
TDs / 15 min
1.21
53%
Takedown defense
59%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.77Δ 2.58 — meaningful gap-0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nikita KrylovRyan Spann
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Ryan Spann(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-20.820.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Nikita Krylov
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21
Ryan Spann
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights15