Lightweight
3 Rounds
Nikolas Motta won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, January 13, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupNikolas Motta: Pressure fightervsTom Nolan: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Tom Nolan wins(52.9%)
Actual result: Nikolas Motta wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Nolan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tom Nolan (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Nikolas Motta
Red Corner
VS
Tom Nolan
Blue Corner
+285
(26%)
Vegas Odds
-360
(78%)
33
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
6'3"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nikolas Motta
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Jim Miller · Feb 22W
KOvs Cameron VanCamp · Sep 22L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 23W
vs Maheshate · Nov 24L
KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Jun 25Tom NolanW4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Victor Martinez · May 24W
vs Alex Reyes · Aug 24W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Feb 25W
SUBvs Charlie Campbell · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nikolas MottaMetricTom Nolan
4.13
Strikes / min
5.87
5.28
Strikes absorbed / min
4.73
52%
Strike defense
48%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.74
83%
Takedown defense
71%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.15Δ 2.29 — meaningful gap+1.14
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nikolas MottaTom Nolan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nikolas Motta(6 fights)Tom Nolan(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.316.3
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Nikolas Motta
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6
Tom Nolan
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5