Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Mackenzie Dern won · SUB
UFC Event·Saturday, April 10, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupNina Nunes: Well-roundedvsMackenzie Dern: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Nina Nunes wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Mackenzie Dern wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Nina Nunes has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Nina Nunes
Red Corner
VS
Mackenzie Dern
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+100
(50%)
40
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'4"
162.56 cm
Reach
160.02 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nina Nunes
oldest →latest
W
vs Cynthia Calvillo · Aug 22Mackenzie DernW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23L
vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24W
vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24W
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25W
vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nina NunesMetricMackenzie Dern
4.39
Strikes / min
3.47
3.47
Strikes absorbed / min
3.93
55%
Strike defense
51%
0.24
TDs / 15 min
0.93
73%
Takedown defense
37%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.92Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap-0.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Nina NunesMackenzie Dern
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nina Nunes(2 fights)Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-56.156.1
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.0-49.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.7-49.7
Nina Nunes
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights2
Mackenzie Dern
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights16