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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Oliveira won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1466

Elo1527

Oban ElliottvsMichael OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, August 1, 2026Belgrade, Serbia

Official fight result

Michael Oliveira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:49

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Oban Elliott

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Oban Elliott at +273 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupOban Elliott: Elusive strikervsMichael Oliveira: Striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Oliveira has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Michael Oliveira has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Oban Elliott

Red Corner

Michael Oliveira

Blue Corner

+273

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-352

(78%)

1466

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Oban ElliottL2 streak

oldest →

vs Val Woodburn · Feb 24

vs Preston Parsons · Jul 24

KOvs Bassil Hafez · Nov 24

vs Seokhyeon Ko · Jun 25

SUBvs Jonathan Micallef · Jan 26

latest

Michael OliveiraNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Oban ElliottMetricMichael Oliveira

3.62

Strikes / min

8.40

2.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.36

61%

Strike defense

66%

1.52

TDs / 15 min

0.00

52%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.38Δ 3.66 — meaningful gap+5.04

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Oban Elliott(6 fights)Michael Oliveira(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -60.7|Blue +60.7

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Oban ElliottTargetMichael Oliveira

By target zone

50% acc · 67%

Head

57% acc · 93%

50% acc · 17%

Body

50% acc · 7%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

55% acc · 100%

Distance

36% acc · 29%

Clinch

Ground

71% acc · 71%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Oban Elliott rounds

even

Michael Oliveira rounds

Round 1Michael Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 11

Sig Strikes

14 / 25

54%

Sig Str %

56%

6 / 11

Total Strikes

18 / 29

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Oliveira	14 / 25	18 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Oban Elliott	6 / 11	6 / 11	0 / 1	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Michael Oliveira

Odds

-352

Market-implied probability

Oban Elliott 26%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Oban Elliott (model pick · research)$373

Michael Oliveira$128

26% market-implied · model 56% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC · never rewritten

Oban Elliott

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6

Michael Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights1