Lightweight
3 Rounds
Olivier Aubin-Mercier won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 10, 2016·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupOlivier Aubin-Mercier: WrestlervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(64.4%)
Actual result: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Olivier Aubin-Mercier threatens submissions; Drew Dober has lost 36% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Red Corner
VS
Drew Dober
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Olivier Aubin-MercierL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17W
KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18L
vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18L
vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19Drew DoberW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24L
KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25W
KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25W
KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Olivier Aubin-MercierMetricDrew Dober
2.48
Strikes / min
4.48
2.97
Strikes absorbed / min
4.33
55%
Strike defense
53%
2.36
TDs / 15 min
0.61
70%
Takedown defense
58%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.49evenly matched on net striking+0.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Olivier Aubin-MercierDrew Dober
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+28.8-28.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+84.0-84.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights12
Drew Dober
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26