Lightweight
3 Rounds
Gilbert Burns won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 8, 2018·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupOlivier Aubin-Mercier: WrestlervsGilbert Burns: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(61.3%)
Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gilbert Burns enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Olivier Aubin-Mercier has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Olivier Aubin-Mercier (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Red Corner
VS
Gilbert Burns
Blue Corner
-135
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
37
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Olivier Aubin-MercierL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 16W
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17W
KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18L
vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19Gilbert BurnsL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · May 23L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24L
vs Sean Brady · Sep 24L
KOvs Michael Morales · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Olivier Aubin-MercierMetricGilbert Burns
2.48
Strikes / min
3.16
2.97
Strikes absorbed / min
3.68
55%
Strike defense
52%
2.36
TDs / 15 min
2.04
70%
Takedown defense
53%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.49evenly matched on net striking-0.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Olivier Aubin-MercierGilbert Burns
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.9-17.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-21.021.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights12
Gilbert Burns
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24