Lightweight
3 Rounds
Olivier Aubin-Mercier won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 18, 2016·Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupOlivier Aubin-Mercier: WrestlervsThibault Gouti: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(73.7%)
Actual result: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Olivier Aubin-Mercier threatens submissions; Thibault Gouti has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Olivier Aubin-Mercier (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Red Corner
VS
Thibault Gouti
Blue Corner
-470
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+375
(21%)
37
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Olivier Aubin-MercierL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17W
KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18L
vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18L
vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19Thibault GoutiL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Teemu Packalen · Feb 16L
KOvs Chad Laprise · Aug 16W
KOvs Andrew Holbrook · Sep 17L
vs Sage Northcutt · Feb 18L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Oct 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Olivier Aubin-MercierMetricThibault Gouti
2.48
Strikes / min
3.68
2.97
Strikes absorbed / min
5.64
55%
Strike defense
50%
2.36
TDs / 15 min
1.23
70%
Takedown defense
83%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.49Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap-1.96
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Olivier Aubin-MercierThibault Gouti
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)Thibault Gouti(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+36.1-36.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+28.0-28.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.1-2.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights12
Thibault Gouti
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6