Lightweight
3 Rounds
Olivier Aubin-Mercier won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Sunday, August 23, 2015·Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(67.4%)
Actual result: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Olivier Aubin-Mercier threatens submissions; Tony Sims has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Tony Sims has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Olivier Aubin-Mercier has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Red Corner
VS
Tony Sims
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
37
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Olivier Aubin-MercierL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17W
KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18L
vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18L
vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19Tony Sims
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Steve Montgomery · Jun 15L
SUBvs Abel Trujillo · Jan 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Olivier Aubin-MercierMetricTony Sims
2.48
Strikes / min
1.81
2.97
Strikes absorbed / min
0.76
55%
Strike defense
65%
2.36
TDs / 15 min
0.71
70%
Takedown defense
50%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.49Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+1.05
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Olivier Aubin-MercierTony Sims
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)Tony Sims(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.10.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+63.0-63.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.8-1.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights12
Tony Sims
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3