Welterweight
3 Rounds
Omari Akhmedov won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 3, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupOmari Akhmedov: WrestlervsMats Nilsson: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Omari Akhmedov wins(55.3%)
Actual result: Omari Akhmedov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Omari Akhmedov has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Omari Akhmedov
Red Corner
VS
Mats Nilsson
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
38
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Omari Akhmedov
oldest →latest
W
vs Zak Cummings · Sep 19W
vs Ian Heinisch · Dec 19L
vs Chris Weidman · Aug 20W
SUBvs Tom Breese · Jan 21L
vs Brad Tavares · Jul 21Mats Nilsson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Luke Barnatt · Mar 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Omari AkhmedovMetricMats Nilsson
2.97
Strikes / min
2.99
2.84
Strikes absorbed / min
5.62
55%
Strike defense
63%
2.58
TDs / 15 min
3.87
65%
Takedown defense
44%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
2.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.13Δ 2.76 — meaningful gap-2.63
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Omari AkhmedovMats Nilsson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Omari Akhmedov(10 fights)Mats Nilsson(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.1-18.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Omari Akhmedov
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14
Mats Nilsson
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach—
Fights2