Flyweight
3 Rounds
Louis Smolka won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, October 24, 2015·Dublin, Leinster, Ireland, Ireland
Style matchupPaddy Holohan: WrestlervsLouis Smolka: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(51.1%)
Actual result: Louis Smolka wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paddy Holohan has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Paddy Holohan
Red Corner
VS
Louis Smolka
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
38
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
175.26 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paddy HolohanW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joshua Sampo · Jul 14L
vs Chris Kelades · Oct 14W
vs Shane Howell · Jan 15W
vs Vaughan Lee · Jul 15Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paddy HolohanMetricLouis Smolka
2.13
Strikes / min
4.67
2.81
Strikes absorbed / min
4.11
46%
Strike defense
53%
2.88
TDs / 15 min
1.69
71%
Takedown defense
32%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.68Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap+0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paddy HolohanLouis Smolka
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paddy Holohan(5 fights)Louis Smolka(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-4.64.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.62.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Paddy Holohan
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights5
Louis Smolka
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17