Lightweight
3 Rounds
Paddy Pimblett won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 19, 2022·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupPaddy Pimblett: Pressure fightervsKazula Vargas: Elusive striker
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Paddy Pimblett wins(64.4%)
Actual result: Paddy Pimblett wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paddy Pimblett threatens submissions; Kazula Vargas has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Kazula Vargas has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kazula Vargas (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Paddy Pimblett
Red Corner
VS
Kazula Vargas
Blue Corner
-760
(88%)
Vegas Odds
—
31
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paddy Pimblett
oldest →latest
W
vs Jared Gordon · Dec 22W
vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23W
SUBvs King Green · Jul 24W
KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25L
vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26Kazula Vargas
oldest →latest
L
vs Alex Da Silva · Aug 19L
vs Brok Weaver · Feb 20W
vs Rong Zhu · Apr 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paddy PimblettMetricKazula Vargas
5.49
Strikes / min
3.65
3.89
Strikes absorbed / min
1.77
42%
Strike defense
57%
0.69
TDs / 15 min
0.40
44%
Takedown defense
30%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.60evenly matched on net striking+1.88
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paddy PimblettKazula Vargas
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paddy Pimblett(8 fights)Kazula Vargas(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+34.3-34.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-133.0133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Paddy Pimblett
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8
Kazula Vargas
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4