Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Paige VanZant won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, August 27, 2016·Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Canada
Style matchupPaige VanZant: Submission grapplervsBec Rawlings: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Paige VanZant wins(57.8%)
Actual result: Paige VanZant wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bec Rawlings enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Bec Rawlings threatens submissions; Paige VanZant has lost 75% of fights by sub.
- Bec Rawlings has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Bec Rawlings has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Paige VanZant
Red Corner
VS
Bec Rawlings
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
32
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'6"
165.1 cm
Reach
162.56 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paige VanZant
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rose Namajunas · Dec 15L
SUBvs Michelle Waterson · Dec 16L
vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jan 18W
SUBvs Rachael Ostovich · Jan 19L
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 20Bec RawlingsL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Lisa Ellis · May 15W
vs Seohee Ham · Mar 16L
vs Tecia Torres · Feb 17L
vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Nov 17L
vs Ashlee Evans-Smith · Apr 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paige VanZantMetricBec Rawlings
3.35
Strikes / min
4.48
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
5.66
42%
Strike defense
57%
1.27
TDs / 15 min
0.71
34%
Takedown defense
68%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.73Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap-1.18
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paige VanZantBec Rawlings
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paige VanZant(9 fights)Bec Rawlings(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+12.4-12.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+100.0-100.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
Paige VanZant
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights9
Bec Rawlings
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights7