Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Michelle Waterson won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 17, 2016·Sacramento, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Paige VanZant wins(58.3%)
Actual result: Michelle Waterson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Tale of the Tape
Paige VanZant
Red Corner
VS
Michelle Waterson
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
32
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'3"
165.1 cm
Reach
157.48 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paige VanZant
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rose Namajunas · Dec 15W
KOvs Bec Rawlings · Aug 16L
vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jan 18W
SUBvs Rachael Ostovich · Jan 19L
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 20Michelle Waterson
oldest →latest
W
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Mar 19L
vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Oct 19L
vs Carla Esparza · May 20W
vs Angela Hill · Sep 20L
vs Marina Rodriguez · May 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paige VanZantMetricMichelle Waterson
3.35
Strikes / min
—
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
—
42%
Strike defense
—
1.27
TDs / 15 min
—
34%
Takedown defense
—
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
—
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paige VanZantMichelle Waterson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paige VanZant(9 fights)Michelle Waterson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+28.6-28.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-412.0412.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+3.2-3.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
Paige VanZant
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights9
Michelle Waterson
StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights3