Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Paige VanZant won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, January 19, 2019·Brooklyn, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupPaige VanZant: Submission grapplervsRachael Ostovich: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Paige VanZant wins(58.0%)
Actual result: Paige VanZant wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paige VanZant enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Paige VanZant threatens submissions; Rachael Ostovich has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Rachael Ostovich threatens submissions; Paige VanZant has lost 75% of fights by sub.
- Rachael Ostovich has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rachael Ostovich has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Paige VanZant
Red Corner
VS
Rachael Ostovich
Blue Corner
-175
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
32
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'3"
165.1 cm
Reach
157.48 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paige VanZantL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rose Namajunas · Dec 15W
KOvs Bec Rawlings · Aug 16L
SUBvs Michelle Waterson · Dec 16L
vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jan 18L
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 20Rachael OstovichL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Karine Gevorgyan · Dec 17L
SUBvs Montana De La Rosa · Jul 18L
KOvs Gina Mazany · Nov 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paige VanZantMetricRachael Ostovich
3.35
Strikes / min
2.54
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
3.97
42%
Strike defense
57%
1.27
TDs / 15 min
2.03
34%
Takedown defense
66%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.73Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap-1.43
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paige VanZantRachael Ostovich
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paige VanZant(9 fights)Rachael Ostovich(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+10.0-10.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+173.0-173.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.9-2.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Paige VanZant
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights9
Rachael Ostovich
StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights4