Featherweight
3 Rounds
Pat Sabatini won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 20, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupPat Sabatini: WrestlervsTucker Lutz: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Pat Sabatini wins(79.7%)
Actual result: Pat Sabatini wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Pat Sabatini enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Pat Sabatini has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Tucker Lutz has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Pat Sabatini
Red Corner
VS
Tucker Lutz
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
35
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Pat SabatiniW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Lucas Almeida · Jun 23L
KOvs Diego Lopes · Nov 23W
SUBvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 24W
vs Joanderson Brito · Apr 25W
vs Chepe Mariscal · Nov 25Tucker LutzL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Kevin Aguilar · May 21L
SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Mar 23L
vs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Pat SabatiniMetricTucker Lutz
1.69
Strikes / min
3.74
1.16
Strikes absorbed / min
3.25
54%
Strike defense
44%
4.27
TDs / 15 min
1.99
50%
Takedown defense
69%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.53evenly matched on net striking+0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Pat SabatiniTucker Lutz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Pat Sabatini(10 fights)Tucker Lutz(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.9-16.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-105.0105.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Pat Sabatini
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Tucker Lutz
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4