Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ed Herman won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 18, 2019·Rochester, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupPatrick Cummins: WrestlervsEd Herman: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Patrick Cummins wins(62.8%)
Actual result: Ed Herman wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Patrick Cummins has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ed Herman has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Patrick Cummins
Red Corner
VS
Ed Herman
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
45
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Patrick CumminsL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · May 16W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17W
vs Gian Villante · Jul 17L
vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18L
SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18Ed HermanL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Gian Villante · Oct 18W
vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19W
SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20L
vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21L
KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Patrick CumminsMetricEd Herman
4.26
Strikes / min
3.31
3.35
Strikes absorbed / min
3.71
55%
Strike defense
42%
4.49
TDs / 15 min
1.96
28%
Takedown defense
59%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.91Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Patrick CumminsEd Herman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Patrick Cummins(10 fights)Ed Herman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-9.39.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Patrick Cummins
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights13
Ed Herman
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16