Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Patrick Cummins won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, June 7, 2014·Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Patrick Cummins wins(60.3%)
Actual result: Patrick Cummins wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Roger Narvaez has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Roger Narvaez (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Patrick Cummins
Red Corner
VS
Roger Narvaez
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+280
(26%)
45
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Patrick CumminsL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17W
vs Gian Villante · Jul 17L
vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18L
SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18L
KOvs Ed Herman · May 19Roger Narvaez
oldest →latest
W
vs Luke Barnatt · Nov 14L
KOvs Elias Theodorou · Mar 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Patrick CumminsMetricRoger Narvaez
4.26
Strikes / min
2.12
3.35
Strikes absorbed / min
3.32
55%
Strike defense
64%
4.49
TDs / 15 min
0.00
28%
Takedown defense
50%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.91Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap-1.20
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Patrick CumminsRoger Narvaez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Patrick Cummins(10 fights)Roger Narvaez(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-14.714.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Patrick Cummins
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights13
Roger Narvaez
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach—
Fights3