Middleweight
3 Rounds
Caio Borralho won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, May 4, 2024·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupPaul Craig: Submission grapplervsCaio Borralho: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Caio Borralho wins(56.0%)
Actual result: Caio Borralho wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Caio Borralho has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Caio Borralho has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Caio Borralho (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Paul Craig
Red Corner
VS
Caio Borralho
Blue Corner
+390
(20%)
Vegas Odds
-520
(84%)
38
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul CraigL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Andre Muniz · Jul 23L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25Caio Borralho
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Apr 23W
vs Abus Magomedov · Nov 23W
vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 24L
vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 25W
vs Reinier de Ridder · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul CraigMetricCaio Borralho
2.50
Strikes / min
3.47
3.04
Strikes absorbed / min
2.61
43%
Strike defense
60%
1.43
TDs / 15 min
1.25
35%
Takedown defense
76%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap+0.86
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paul CraigCaio Borralho
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Craig(10 fights)Caio Borralho(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-50.750.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-14.014.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.21.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20
Caio Borralho
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights9