Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Paul Craig won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 25, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupPaul Craig: Submission grapplervsGadzhimurad Antigulov: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Paul Craig wins(56.6%)
Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Gadzhimurad Antigulov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Paul Craig has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Paul Craig has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Paul Craig
Red Corner
VS
Gadzhimurad Antigulov
Blue Corner
-137
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
38
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25Gadzhimurad AntigulovL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 16W
SUBvs Joachim Christensen · May 17L
KOvs Ion Cutelaba · Jul 18L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Apr 19L
KOvs Maxim Grishin · Oct 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul CraigMetricGadzhimurad Antigulov
2.50
Strikes / min
2.08
3.04
Strikes absorbed / min
4.21
43%
Strike defense
40%
1.43
TDs / 15 min
5.08
35%
Takedown defense
0%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-2.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paul CraigGadzhimurad Antigulov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Craig(10 fights)Gadzhimurad Antigulov(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.5-2.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-154.0154.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20
Gadzhimurad Antigulov
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6