Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Paul Craig won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, June 12, 2021·Glendale, Arizona, USA, USA
Style matchupPaul Craig: Submission grapplervsJamahal Hill: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Jamahal Hill wins(51.7%)
Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Jamahal Hill enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jamahal Hill is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
- Jamahal Hill has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jamahal Hill (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Paul Craig
Red Corner
VS
Jamahal Hill
Blue Corner
+210
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-275
(73%)
38
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'4"
193.04 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25Jamahal HillL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Thiago Santos · Aug 22W
vs Glover Teixeira · Jan 23L
KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 24L
KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jan 25L
vs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Jun 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul CraigMetricJamahal Hill
2.50
Strikes / min
6.19
3.04
Strikes absorbed / min
4.03
43%
Strike defense
44%
1.43
TDs / 15 min
0.00
35%
Takedown defense
73%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54Δ 2.70 — meaningful gap+2.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paul CraigJamahal Hill
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Craig(10 fights)Jamahal Hill(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-11.911.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20
Jamahal Hill
StanceSouthpaw
Height76.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11