Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Johnny Walker won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, January 21, 2023·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupPaul Craig: Submission grapplervsJohnny Walker: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Johnny Walker wins(52.5%)
Actual result: Johnny Walker wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Johnny Walker is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
- Johnny Walker has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Johnny Walker has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Paul Craig
Red Corner
VS
Johnny Walker
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
38
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'6"
193.04 cm
Reach
208.28 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25Johnny Walker
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Ion Cutelaba · Sep 22W
vs Anthony Smith · May 23L
KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jan 24L
KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jun 24W
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul CraigMetricJohnny Walker
2.50
Strikes / min
3.90
3.04
Strikes absorbed / min
2.99
43%
Strike defense
46%
1.43
TDs / 15 min
0.36
35%
Takedown defense
57%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap+0.91
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paul CraigJohnny Walker
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Craig(10 fights)Johnny Walker(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+25.2-25.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+49.0-49.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20
Johnny Walker
StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights14