Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Magomed Ankalaev is a KO finisher (54% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
- Paul Craig threatens submissions; Magomed Ankalaev has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Magomed Ankalaev has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Magomed Ankalaev has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25 Magomed Ankalaev
oldest →W
KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24W
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24W
vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25L
KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25W
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul CraigMetricMagomed Ankalaev
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.54Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+1.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paul CraigMagomed Ankalaev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Craig(10 fights)Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -62.0|Blue +62.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.7|Blue +48.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paul CraigTargetMagomed Ankalaev
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Magomed Ankalaev edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control1:14
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:26Control
Round 2Magomed Ankalaev edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control0:33
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:08Control
Round 3Magomed Ankalaev edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:09Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
