Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Paul Craig won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 17, 2018·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupPaul Craig: Submission grapplervsMagomed Ankalaev: Elusive striker
The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.
Model Prediction: Paul Craig wins(51.1%)
Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Magomed Ankalaev is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
- Paul Craig threatens submissions; Magomed Ankalaev has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Magomed Ankalaev has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Magomed Ankalaev has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Paul Craig
Red Corner
VS
Magomed Ankalaev
Blue Corner
+550
(15%)
Vegas Odds
-800
(89%)
38
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25Magomed Ankalaev
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Anthony Smith · Jul 22W
KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24W
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24W
vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25L
KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul CraigMetricMagomed Ankalaev
2.50
Strikes / min
3.65
3.04
Strikes absorbed / min
2.59
43%
Strike defense
56%
1.43
TDs / 15 min
0.79
35%
Takedown defense
87%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+1.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paul CraigMagomed Ankalaev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Craig(10 fights)Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-15.415.4
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.748.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20
Magomed Ankalaev
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14