Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Volkan Oezdemir won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 23, 2022·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupPaul Craig: Submission grapplervsVolkan Oezdemir: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Paul Craig wins(54.9%)
Actual result: Volkan Oezdemir wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Volkan Oezdemir is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
- Volkan Oezdemir has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Volkan Oezdemir has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Paul Craig
Red Corner
VS
Volkan Oezdemir
Blue Corner
+125
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
38
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'2"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25Volkan Oezdemir
oldest →latest
L
vs Nikita Krylov · Oct 22W
SUBvs Bogdan Guskov · Sep 23W
KOvs Johnny Walker · Jun 24L
vs Carlos Ulberg · Nov 24W
KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul CraigMetricVolkan Oezdemir
2.50
Strikes / min
4.99
3.04
Strikes absorbed / min
4.19
43%
Strike defense
55%
1.43
TDs / 15 min
0.50
35%
Takedown defense
80%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paul CraigVolkan Oezdemir
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Craig(10 fights)Volkan Oezdemir(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+53.5-53.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-140.0140.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20
Volkan Oezdemir
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights16