Lightweight
5 Rounds
Rafael Dos Anjos won · S-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, November 14, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(54.9%)
Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Dos Anjos has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Paul Felder
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Dos Anjos
Blue Corner
+165
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
42
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul Felder
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 17L
vs Mike Perry · Jul 18W
vs James Vick · Feb 19W
vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19L
vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul FelderMetricRafael Dos Anjos
3.70
Strikes / min
3.48
3.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.23
48%
Strike defense
60%
0.29
TDs / 15 min
1.95
64%
Takedown defense
54%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paul FelderRafael Dos Anjos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Felder(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-24.524.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Paul Felder
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Rafael Dos Anjos
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32