Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jacob Volkmann won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Sunday, August 1, 2010·San Diego, California, USA, USA
Style matchupPaul Kelly: Submission grapplervsJacob Volkmann: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Paul Kelly wins(58.7%)
Actual result: Jacob Volkmann wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Kelly threatens submissions; Jacob Volkmann has lost 100% of fights by sub.
- Jacob Volkmann has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jacob Volkmann (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Paul Kelly
Red Corner
VS
Jacob Volkmann
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
41
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul Kelly
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Matt Veach · Apr 10W
KOvs TJ O'Brien · Nov 10L
SUBvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 11Jacob Volkmann
oldest →latest
W
vs Danny Castillo · Aug 11W
vs Efrain Escudero · Dec 11L
SUBvs Paul Sass · May 12W
SUBvs Shane Roller · Oct 12L
SUBvs Bobby Green · Feb 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul KellyMetricJacob Volkmann
3.22
Strikes / min
1.19
2.61
Strikes absorbed / min
1.78
59%
Strike defense
52%
1.34
TDs / 15 min
3.19
30%
Takedown defense
52%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
2.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.61Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-0.59
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paul KellyJacob Volkmann
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Kelly(4 fights)Jacob Volkmann(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-10.010.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Paul Kelly
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4
Jacob Volkmann
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8