Lightweight
3 Rounds
Paul Kelly won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, April 10, 2010·Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupPaul Kelly: Submission grapplervsMatt Veach: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Matt Veach wins(56.1%)
Actual result: Paul Kelly wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Kelly has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matt Veach has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Paul Kelly
Red Corner
VS
Matt Veach
Blue Corner
+220
(31%)
Vegas Odds
-260
(72%)
41
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
176.53 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul Kelly
oldest →latest
L
vs Jacob Volkmann · Aug 10W
KOvs TJ O'Brien · Nov 10L
SUBvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 11Matt VeachNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul KellyMetricMatt Veach
3.22
Strikes / min
1.12
2.61
Strikes absorbed / min
4.91
59%
Strike defense
44%
1.34
TDs / 15 min
3.64
30%
Takedown defense
100%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.61Δ 4.40 — meaningful gap-3.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paul KellyMatt Veach
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Kelly(4 fights)Matt Veach(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Paul Kelly
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4
Matt Veach
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights1