Lightweight
3 Rounds
Paul Kelly won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 20, 2010·Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Paul Kelly wins(74.4%)
Actual result: Paul Kelly wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Kelly is a KO finisher (50% of wins). TJ O'Brien has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Paul Kelly threatens submissions; TJ O'Brien has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Paul Kelly has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- TJ O'Brien has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Paul Kelly
Red Corner
VS
TJ O'Brien
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
41
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'2"
177.8 cm
Reach
196 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul KellyL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Matt Veach · Apr 10L
vs Jacob Volkmann · Aug 10L
SUBvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 11TJ O'Brien
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Cole Miller · Aug 11Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul KellyMetricTJ O'Brien
3.22
Strikes / min
3.77
2.61
Strikes absorbed / min
4.78
59%
Strike defense
57%
1.34
TDs / 15 min
0.94
30%
Takedown defense
0%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.61Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap-1.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paul KellyTJ O'Brien
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Kelly(4 fights)TJ O'Brien(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-47.647.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
Paul Kelly
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4
TJ O'Brien
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach—
Fights2