Lightweight
3 Rounds
Danny Castillo won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 16, 2013·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(53.4%)
Actual result: Danny Castillo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Danny Castillo has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Paul Sass
Red Corner
VS
Danny Castillo
Blue Corner
-107
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-103
(51%)
37
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul Sass
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Mark Holst · Oct 10W
SUBvs Michael Johnson · Oct 11W
SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · May 12L
SUBvs Matt Wiman · Sep 12Danny CastilloL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14L
vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15L
vs Jim Miller · Jul 15L
vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul SassMetricDanny Castillo
0.53
Strikes / min
2.57
1.90
Strikes absorbed / min
1.96
51%
Strike defense
62%
0.53
TDs / 15 min
2.95
33%
Takedown defense
63%
7.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.37Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paul SassDanny Castillo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Sass(5 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.6-2.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+6.0-6.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.02.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Paul Sass
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5
Danny Castillo
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights14