Lightweight
3 Rounds
Paul Sass won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 16, 2010·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Model Prediction: Paul Sass wins(67.1%)
Actual result: Paul Sass wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Sass threatens submissions; Mark Holst has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Mark Holst has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Paul Sass
Red Corner
VS
Mark Holst
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
37
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
190 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul SassL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Michael Johnson · Oct 11W
SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · May 12L
SUBvs Matt Wiman · Sep 12L
vs Danny Castillo · Feb 13Mark Holst
oldest →latest
L
vs John Gunderson · Jun 10Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul SassMetricMark Holst
0.53
Strikes / min
0.25
1.90
Strikes absorbed / min
1.67
51%
Strike defense
47%
0.53
TDs / 15 min
0.76
33%
Takedown defense
60%
7.40
Sub atts / 15 min
2.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.37evenly matched on net striking-1.42
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paul SassMark Holst
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Sass(5 fights)Mark Holst(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.5-18.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+50.0-50.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+50.0-50.0
Paul Sass
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5
Mark Holst
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach—
Fights2