Lightweight
3 Rounds
Matt Wiman won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 29, 2012·Nottingham, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Model Prediction: Paul Sass wins(56.0%)
Actual result: Matt Wiman wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Wiman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matt Wiman threatens submissions; Paul Sass has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Matt Wiman has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Paul Sass has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Paul Sass
Red Corner
VS
Matt Wiman
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
37
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul Sass
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Mark Holst · Oct 10W
SUBvs Michael Johnson · Oct 11W
SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · May 12L
vs Danny Castillo · Feb 13Matt WimanL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs TJ Grant · Jan 13W
vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Nov 14L
KOvs Luis Pena · Jun 19L
vs Joe Solecki · Dec 19L
KOvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul SassMetricMatt Wiman
0.53
Strikes / min
3.17
1.90
Strikes absorbed / min
3.57
51%
Strike defense
51%
0.53
TDs / 15 min
2.13
33%
Takedown defense
56%
7.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.37evenly matched on net striking-0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paul SassMatt Wiman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Sass(5 fights)Matt Wiman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+20.1-20.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-238.0238.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.71.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Paul Sass
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5
Matt Wiman
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10