Middleweight
3 Rounds
Paulo Costa won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 20, 2022·Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, USA
Style matchupPaulo Costa: Pressure fightervsLuke Rockhold: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Paulo Costa wins(56.0%)
Actual result: Paulo Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paulo Costa is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Luke Rockhold has lost 80% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Luke Rockhold (53.5%).
- Luke Rockhold has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Paulo Costa
Red Corner
VS
Luke Rockhold
Blue Corner
-330
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+275
(27%)
35
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'3"
182.88 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paulo Costa
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Israel Adesanya · Sep 20L
vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 21L
vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24W
vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25Luke RockholdL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 15L
KOvs Michael Bisping · Jun 16W
KOvs David Branch · Sep 17L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Feb 18L
KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Jul 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paulo CostaMetricLuke Rockhold
6.15
Strikes / min
4.10
5.96
Strikes absorbed / min
2.68
49%
Strike defense
53%
0.30
TDs / 15 min
0.70
77%
Takedown defense
65%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.19Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap+1.42
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paulo CostaLuke Rockhold
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paulo Costa(10 fights)Luke Rockhold(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+8.0-8.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-840.0840.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Paulo Costa
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11
Luke Rockhold
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights11