Middleweight
3 Rounds
Paulo Costa won · U-DEC R3
PC
RK
Paulo CostavsRoman Kopylov
UFC Event · Saturday, July 19, 2025New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, USA
Style matchupPaulo Costa: Pressure fightervsRoman Kopylov: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Roman Kopylov wins(54.3%)
Actual result: Paulo Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Roman Kopylov (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Paulo Costa
Red Corner
VS
Roman Kopylov
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
35
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paulo CostaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Israel Adesanya · Sep 20L
vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 21W
vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22L
vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24Roman Kopylov
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Josh Fremd · Sep 23L
SUBvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 24W
vs Cesar Almeida · Jun 24W
KOvs Chris Curtis · Jan 25L
vs Gregory Rodrigues · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paulo CostaMetricRoman Kopylov
6.15
Strikes / min
4.54
5.96
Strikes absorbed / min
5.08
49%
Strike defense
53%
0.30
TDs / 15 min
1.12
77%
Takedown defense
88%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.19evenly matched on net striking-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paulo CostaRoman Kopylov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paulo Costa(10 fights)Roman Kopylov(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-10.410.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+224.0-224.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.41.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Paulo Costa
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11
Roman Kopylov
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11