Welterweight
3 Rounds
Brandon Thatch won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 9, 2013·Goiania, Goias, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Paulo Thiago wins(57.2%)
Actual result: Brandon Thatch wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brandon Thatch enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Paulo Thiago has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Thatch (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Paulo Thiago
Red Corner
VS
Brandon Thatch
Blue Corner
+325
(24%)
Vegas Odds
-360
(78%)
45
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paulo ThiagoL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Apr 12L
vs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 12W
vs Michel Prazeres · May 13L
vs Gasan Umalatov · May 14L
vs Sean Spencer · Sep 14Brandon ThatchL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Justin Edwards · Aug 13L
SUBvs Benson Henderson · Feb 15L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Jul 15L
SUBvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Mar 16L
SUBvs Niko Price · Dec 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paulo ThiagoMetricBrandon Thatch
1.71
Strikes / min
2.70
1.99
Strikes absorbed / min
3.63
63%
Strike defense
52%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
1.36
63%
Takedown defense
50%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.93
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paulo ThiagoBrandon Thatch
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paulo Thiago(9 fights)Brandon Thatch(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-48.348.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+102.0-102.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Paulo Thiago
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9
Brandon Thatch
StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6