Welterweight
3 Rounds
Paulo Thiago won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 27, 2011·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Paulo Thiago wins(60.5%)
Actual result: Paulo Thiago wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paulo Thiago enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Paulo Thiago has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Paulo Thiago
Red Corner
VS
David Mitchell
Blue Corner
-415
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+370
(21%)
45
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paulo ThiagoL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 12W
vs Michel Prazeres · May 13L
KOvs Brandon Thatch · Nov 13L
vs Gasan Umalatov · May 14L
vs Sean Spencer · Sep 14David MitchellL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs TJ Waldburger · Sep 10W
vs Simeon Thoresen · Jan 13L
KOvs Mike Pierce · Jul 13L
vs Yan Cabral · Oct 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paulo ThiagoMetricDavid Mitchell
1.71
Strikes / min
1.74
1.99
Strikes absorbed / min
2.06
63%
Strike defense
55%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
0.66
63%
Takedown defense
29%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
2.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paulo ThiagoDavid Mitchell
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paulo Thiago(9 fights)David Mitchell(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-18.518.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-38.038.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Paulo Thiago
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9
David Mitchell
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights5