Welterweight
3 Rounds
Sean Spencer won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 13, 2014·Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupPaulo Thiago: Submission grapplervsSean Spencer: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Sean Spencer wins(50.4%)
Actual result: Sean Spencer wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sean Spencer enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sean Spencer (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Paulo Thiago
Red Corner
VS
Sean Spencer
Blue Corner
+215
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-235
(70%)
45
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paulo ThiagoL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Apr 12L
vs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 12W
vs Michel Prazeres · May 13L
KOvs Brandon Thatch · Nov 13L
vs Gasan Umalatov · May 14Sean SpencerL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Drew Dober · Nov 13L
vs Alex Garcia · Mar 14L
vs Cathal Pendred · Jan 15L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 16L
SUBvs Yancy Medeiros · Sep 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paulo ThiagoMetricSean Spencer
1.71
Strikes / min
4.24
1.99
Strikes absorbed / min
4.02
63%
Strike defense
60%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
0.14
63%
Takedown defense
68%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.28evenly matched on net striking+0.22
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Paulo ThiagoSean Spencer
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paulo Thiago(9 fights)Sean Spencer(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-62.862.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-77.077.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Paulo Thiago
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9
Sean Spencer
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8